Ce projet vise à contribuer aux connaissances sur les politiques macroéconomiques qui sont essentielles pour répondre à la pandémie de COVID-19 dans les pays à faible revenu. Les répercussions de la pandémie sur les économies de ces pays sont importantes et contribuent à l’augmentation de la pauvreté et de la faim. Il existe un besoin urgent de données, d’analyses et de conseils crédibles permettant de formuler les politiques économiques et les mesures fiscales et monétaires nécessaires pour atténuer les effets et promouvoir une reprise inclusive et durable.
Le projet sera mené par l’Overseas Development Institute au Royaume-Uni, en collaboration avec des think tanks au Bangladesh, au Sri Lanka, au Kenya, en Tanzanie et au Pérou, et le réseau Southern Voice. Ce partenariat permettra de produire des données crédibles susceptibles de soutenir les politiques nationales et internationales en réponse à la pandémie, en se concentrant sur les performances macroéconomiques, les scénarios de croissance et les options de politique macroéconomique, en mettant l’accent sur l’égalité des sexes et les résultats en matière de changement climatique.
Enhancing social protection : a global South priority for the G20 agenda Articles de revue COVID-19 has been a tough test for the international cooperation system. While the global community responded with some immediate actions, it was not at the scale required. In year two of the pandemic, international support should move beyond emergency response towards medium- and long- term planning. Auteur ou autrice(s) : Ordóñez, Andrea, te Velde, Dirk Willem
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Shaping macro economy in response to COVID-19 in Kenya : a responsible economic stimulus and a stable financial sector Brief Kenya experienced overall macro stability and modest growth of 5.5% for the period 2017 to 2019. The onset of COVID 19 pandemic in March 2020 however subdued the economy owing to swift containment measures that were imposed to limit the spread of the pandemic. As a result, Kenya suffered its first recession in nearly two decades. The government responded fast by instituting a broad range of macroeconomic policy interventions. It launched the 8-Point Economic Stimulus Programme targeted towards building back a better and resilient economy. This policy was chosen to estimate the socio-economic effects of the stimulus. Using available evidence of fiscal multipliers, we came up with three scenarios: (i) untargeted total expansionary fiscal stimulus and (ii) targeted sectoral public spending and (iii) hypothetical reallocation to targeted sectoral with high multiplier effect. Results of the scenario building exercise highlight that fiscal stimulus could contribute to Kenya’s growth over the short-term, but the impact greatly improves if measures are targeted to sectors with higher multiplier effects. In medium to long term, focus on environment and green investment could result to higher socio-economic effects. Auteur ou autrice(s) : Institute of Economic Affairs Langage : Anglais |
COVID-19 and Bangladesh : macroeconomic impacts and policy choices Paper Bangladesh, like most of the countries in the world, had to restrict mobility and economic activities to tackle the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Indeed, the pandemic has been exerting pressure on the economy through both global and domestic shocks leading to a detrimental impact on major macroeconomic correlates of the country. The present study urges that Bangladesh will need to pursue a countercyclical fiscal policy stance in the face of deceleration in aggregate demand. The study further maintains that greater fiscal resources should be directed towards those people, households and enterprises having a higher propensity to consume and invest. From this perspective, the study strongly advocates for direct cash transfers, food support, and enhanced public expenditures in health and education rather than a general increase in public expenditures and subsidised credit flow. Auteur ou autrice(s) : Bhattacharya, Debapriya, Khan, Towfiqul Islam, Rabbi, Md Mursalin Hossain Langage : Anglais |
Macroeconomic impact of COVID-19 and policy choices for Sri Lanka Paper This paper takes a comprehensive look at the economic impact of COVID-19 and explores the public policy choices to engineer economic recovery. It also maps the behaviour of key economic variables using indicators including growth, exports, poverty, gender, climate change, public finance, and the trade regime. Auteur ou autrice(s) : Wignaraja, Ganeshan Langage : Anglais |