Amplifying the uptake of African adaptation science in the 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Effectively responding to intensifying climate change hazards requires identifying risks arising from each response, as well as risks arising from the dynamic interactions between responses. Using examples of managed retreat and solar geoengineering, we illustrate the importance of understanding response as a determinant of climate change risk. We highlight a continuum of severity of response risks, both at the site of deployment and across temporally and geographically distant contexts. While responses might moderate a specific hazard, due to the complexity of climate change risk they may be ineffective at reducing net climate-related risk for any given actor or system. We also show how some responses to climate change affect vulnerability, exposure, and other responses to climate change independent of the targeted hazard and can lead to maladaptation. We conclude by emphasizing the importance of integrating climate change responses together with other determinants of risk to better inform climate risk management and guide research on the feasibility of individual response options.

The African coast contains heritage sites of ‘Outstanding Universal Value’ that face increasing risk from anthropogenic climate change. Here, we generated a database of 213 natural and 71 cultural African heritage sites to assess exposure to coastal flooding and erosion under moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Currently, 56 sites (20%) are at risk from a 1-in-100-year coastal extreme event, including the iconic ruins of Tipasa (Algeria) and the North Sinai Archaeological Sites Zone (Egypt). By 2050, the number of exposed sites is projected to more than triple, reaching almost 200 sites under high emissions. Emissions mitigation from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 reduces the number of very highly exposed sites by 25%. These findings highlight the urgent need for increased climate change adaptation for heritage sites in Africa, including governance and management approaches, site-specific vulnerability assessments, exposure monitoring, and protection strategies.

Climate change literacy encompasses being aware of both climate change and its anthropogenic cause and thus underpins informed mitigation and adaptation responses. However, climate change literacy rates and their predictors remain poorly understood across the Global South. Here analysis of Africa’s largest representative public opinion survey shows climate change literacy ranges from 23 to 66% of the population across 33 countries, with larger variation at subnational scales (for example, 5–71% among states in Nigeria). Strong positive predictors of climate change literacy are education and mobility, but poverty decreases climate change literacy, and country-level climate change literacy rates are, on average, 12.8% lower for women than men. Perceived drought experiences and historical trends in precipitation are also important predictors. These results highlight where interventions can target specific regions and demographics to increase climate change literacy and help ensure that responses are informed by better understanding of current and future climate change.

In highly vulnerable systems with complex development contexts, such as drylands, where globally, warming is already exceeding that of humid areas, urgent action is vital, as the window of opportunity for Climate Resilient Development is rapidly closing. This paper considers challenges and opportunities in charting Climate Resilient Development Pathways in the world’s drylands. It highlights the importance of stakeholder engagement and partnership building to harness diverse knowledge sources, situating equity and justice concerns at the core of decision making and actions such as land restoration.

Water scarcity is a global challenge, yet existing responses are failing to cope with current shocks and stressors, including those attributable to climate change. In sub-Saharan Africa, the impacts of water scarcity threaten livelihoods and wellbeing across the continent and are driving a broad range of adaptive responses. This paper describes trends of water scarcity for Africa and outlines climate impacts on key water-related sectors on food systems, cities, livelihoods and wellbeing, conflict and security, economies, and ecosystems. It then uses systematic review methods, including the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative, to analyse 240 articles and identify adaptation characteristics of planned and autonomous responses to water scarcity across Africa.