Trade for development: Towards a research, evidence and innovation agenda

Scoping the field to unlock trade and development transformation

After decades of trade liberalization, global trade systems are increasingly being scrutinized for their ability to deliver inclusive and sustainable development. The period of relatively steady, trade-driven poverty reduction is giving way to greater uncertainty amid shifting global dynamics. Many groups — particularly women, youth and informal workers — continue to face barriers to benefiting from trade. 

At the same time, momentum is building around trade’s role in shaping equitable and sustainable outcomes, fueling calls for changes in how trade systems are designed and governed. There is growing recognition that a new paradigm is needed — one grounded in forward-looking, evidence-based policies, stronger partnerships and targeted investments to address challenges, including climate change, geopolitical fragmentation, rapid technological transformation and persistent infrastructure and logistics constraints. Linked below, 10 scoping studies across Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean, Asia, the Middle East, and a global paper, identify the key pressures reshaping global trade — and the critical knowledge gaps that must be addressed to ensure trade remains a driver of inclusive and sustainable development. 

The main take-away is clear: 

Trade in transition: A more fragmented and uncertain global system 

Across all regions, trade is moving away from a predictable, rules-based system toward a more fragmented and politically driven order shaped by geopolitical alignment, supply chain security and strategic competition. 

Major global dynamics — such as US-China competition, the spread of protectionist measures and the restructuring of global value chains — are creating both risks and opportunities. Regions are navigating these shifts differently: 

• Africa and South Asia face heightened vulnerability due to reliance on external markets and exposure to tariff changes.  
• Latin America and Southeast Asia are navigating dual economic alignments while seeking to reposition themselves in evolving supply chains.  
• The Middle East and North Africa are balancing structural constraints with efforts to diversify and integrate into new trade networks.  
• Caribbean economies, including CARICOM, face structural constraints linked to small market size, high trade costs and exposure to external shocks, highlighting the need for resilience, diversification and deeper regional integration 

Together, these shifts are reshaping competitiveness and prompting new thinking about how countries can secure their place in global trade while enhancing resilience amid growing volatility and uncertainty. 

Climate and trade: Synergies and tensions toward competitiveness imperatives 

Climate action is becoming central to trade dynamics. Across all regions, the transition to low-carbon economies is reshaping comparative advantages, value chains and market access conditions. 

Regions rich in natural resources — such as Latin America and Africa — have significant potential to benefit from demand for critical minerals and low-carbon products. However, they also face increasing exposure to climate-related trade measures, including carbon border adjustments and environmental standards. 

At the same time, climate shocks and climate‑related trade measures amplify existing inequalities by disproportionately affecting climate‑sensitive sectors.   

More research is needed to connect climate and trade, including impacts on resilience, adaptation and equity. 

Digital transformation: Opportunity with uneven gains 

Digitalization is emerging as a powerful enabler of trade transformation. Digital trade can widen participation, but without appropriate governance, it may also reinforce existing inequalities through infrastructure, skills and regulatory gaps. 

Research can help clarify how digital transformation is reshaping trade systems, from value‑chain upgrading and regulatory inclusion to the risk of widening inequalities through persistent digital divides. 

Logistics, infrastructure and trade 

In many parts of the Global South, inadequate or missing infrastructure — particularly in transport and logistics — remains a major constraint to trade development. Weak road and port networks, inefficient customs systems and limited connectivity increase trade costs and reduce competitiveness. These challenges are often compounded by adverse weather and climate-related events, which can disrupt supply chains and damage already fragile infrastructure. Across the Caribbean, Africa and parts of Asia, this underscores the critical need for investments in quality, climate-resilient infrastructure as a foundation for more inclusive, reliable and sustainable trade systems. 

Regional integration and value chains: Unrealized potential 

Across regions, integration remains a priority but progress has been uneven. While frameworks such as the African Continental Free Trade Area and regional agreements in Asia and Latin America offer significant potential, regulatory fragmentation and limited institutional capacity continue to constrain intraregional trade. As a result, many economies remain more integrated with more distant trading partners than with their neighbours. 

At the same time, global value chains are being reshaped by geopolitics and sustainability requirements. For regions traditionally focused on raw materials, this creates both pressure — and opportunity — to move into higher value-added activities. 

More evidence is needed in understanding how countries can upgrade within value chains while ensuring that gains are broadly shared across economies and populations. 

Trade, jobs, and inequality: Understanding who benefits 

In this more fragmented global context, these dynamics intensify pressures on jobs and inclusion.  

Structural factors — such as informality, gender gaps and unequal access to skills and finance — shape who participates in, and benefits from, trade expansion. In many regions: 

• women remain concentrated in lower-value, more vulnerable sectors  
• youth face barriers to entering higher-productivity industries  
• informal workers are excluded from formal trade systems and protections  

There is a clear need for more evidence on how trade policies and global shocks affect employment, wages, and opportunities across different groups. This includes understanding the political economy of trade — who gains, who loses, and how public policy and private sector action can better support mutually beneficial outcomes. 

From sectors to systems: Rethinking trade and development 

This calls for a systemic approach that addresses power imbalances while focusing on climate, innovation, infrastructure, governance and institutional capacity together. Across regions, the evidence suggests that progress in any one area depends on parallel advances in others — highlighting the limits of sector‑specific interventions and the need for integrated policy and investment frameworks. Research must evolve beyond technical solutions to incorporate social, institutional and political dimensions of change. 

A window of opportunity 

Against this backdrop, current disruptions create a window to rethink how trade can be governed to deliver more inclusive and resilient outcomes. The scoping studies suggest that with strong evidence, effective policies and strategic partnerships, trade can better support inclusive, sustainable growth — provided this systems perspective is translated into coordinated policy and investment choices. 

Explore the 10 scoping studies 

Each scoping study linked below includes the full paper and an accompanying brief, providing an overview of key findings — including priority research areas for the future — and an analysis of how emerging trade dynamics relate to inclusive, sustainable and resilient development outcomes. 

Contributors: Flaubert Mbiekop, Senior Program Specialist and Anupa Prashad, Knowledge Sharing Officer at IDRC