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Reimagining global cooperation: Preparing for what the future could hold

 

The world is evolving faster than ever. Climate instability, geopolitical tensions and technological transformation are reshaping how we cooperate, govern and solve global challenges. In response, Cooperation Canada, an umbrella organization representing more than 100 Canadian international development and humanitarian organizations, with support from IDRC, launched the Global Cooperation Futures Initiative to anticipate what these changes could mean for the future of global cooperation.

Strategic foresight, a structured approach to exploring and preparing for future uncertainties, played a key role in the ambitious two-year initiative. Through foresight, the project explored how civil society organizations (CSOs), policymakers and development actors can think and act more strategically amid uncertainty. By engaging more than 350 participants worldwide through research and foresight exercises, the project identified emerging issues and high-priority trends, and developed three plausible scenarios for global cooperation post-2030.

Research highlights

  • Introduced more than 350 development actors to strategic foresight tools like scenario planning and environmental scanning.
  • Identified two driving forces — asymmetry and realignment — alongside 15 high-priority trends shaping global cooperation post-2030.
  • Developed three plausible future scenarios — multipolar state-led, multi-stakeholder, and transactional cooperation — for global cooperation post-2030.
  • Facilitated five regional dialogues, incorporating diverse perspectives to co-create knowledge and ensured findings resonated with local realities.

Forces driving change: Asymmetry and realignment

Looking ahead, the project identified two major forces likely to shape global cooperation in the coming seven to 10 years: asymmetry and realignment.

Asymmetry reflects the widening gaps in power, resources and capacity between nations and regions, making cooperation more challenging as disparities grow. Realignment, on the other hand, captures the shifting alliances, emerging powers and changing priorities that redefine who leads, who follows and how global challenges are addressed.

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A graphic from the landscape report

These forces manifest consistently across socio-economic, political and environmental domains and interact with 15 high-priority trends, including disproportionate demographic shifts, record climate and conflict-driven migration, rising socio-economic asymmetry, digital divides and democratic backsliding. 

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A table from the landscape report
The Futures Initiative identified 15 high-priority trends encompassing a broad spectrum of societal, economic and technological changes, each with the potential to drive disruption and transformation in global cooperation in the post-2030 era.

Using scenarios to stretch our thinking

Together, these trends, drivers and signals of change informed the development of three plausible scenarios for global cooperation beyond 2030: multipolar state-led cooperation, multi-stakeholder cooperation and transactional cooperation. The purpose of developing the scenarios was to encourage civil society to be proactive in anticipating emerging challenges and envision potential trajectories for international cooperation and the implications for the development community.

The scenarios are not intended to be predictions of the future. Rather, they offer a glimpse into different futures, each shaped by how we choose to address, or fail to address, the uncertainties that define our present. Each scenario embodies a distinct trajectory:

  • Multipolar state-led cooperation envisions a fragmented world of decentralized alliances driven by national interests, fostering innovation but also rivalries.
  • Multi-stakeholder cooperation imagines an inclusive approach where grassroots movements, businesses and governments work together, albeit amid tensions over power dynamics.
  • Transactional cooperation reflects a breakdown of global governance, with nations prioritizing self-interest, deepening inequalities and leaving vulnerable populations at risk.

Grounding foresight in collaboration and real-world contexts

“We worked alongside CSOs to co-create knowledge, validate findings, identify research gaps and openly share our process, ensuring shared ownership over project outputs," said Andy Ouédraogo, research and program officer at Cooperation Canada. “By incorporating lived experiences, particularly from the Global South, the Futures Initiative balanced data-driven insights with on-the-ground realities.”

Virtual workshops also facilitated this process, creating a space for participants to identify emerging issues, reflect on transformative opportunities and collectively stretch their thinking about the future. 

Beyond data collection, the project’s steering committee comprised 15 partners with expertise in foresight, research and international development, meeting regularly to provide valuable insights that shaped the initiative’s goals, methodologies and outcomes and ensured a more comprehensive approach.

Regional dialogues further strengthened the initiative’s impact. Dialogues held in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, Latin America, the Caribbean and the Middle East and North Africa brought diverse perspectives to the table to co-create knowledge, validating the initiative’s findings and ensuring they resonated with local realities.

Addressing inequities in future planning

The initiative highlighted stark disparities in the readiness of CSOs to engage in long-term planning. Participants from the Global North often found it easier to engage with foresight tools during workshops, compared to their Global South counterparts.

“The privilege of being able to pause and think ahead is not equally accessible to all,” Ouedraogo said. To address this imbalance, the Futures Initiative integrated foundational elements of foresight into its workshops, ensuring participants from diverse contexts could meaningfully engage. Tools such as “Foresight 101” made strategic foresight concepts — including scenario planning, environmental scanning and horizon scanning — accessible even to smaller organizations. “The workshops helped us think critically about potential futures and encouraged us to challenge the status quo,” said one participant.

While statistical and technical data remained essential, the integration of lived experiences, especially from the Global South, ensured the findings were both holistic and actionable. 

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Participants at the Future is Foresight session at Cooperation Canada’s Future Forum.
Andy Ouedraogo
Participants at the Future is Foresight session at Cooperation Canada’s Future Forum during which the scenarios were presented to an audience of 400+ Canadian and Global development actors.

Regional perspectives and visions on the future of global cooperation

The five regional dialogues captured emerging issues, signs of change and visions of the future of global cooperation. The dialogues revealed diverse yet interconnected visions for a more just, inclusive and sustainable world:

  • In the Caribbean, the concept of ancestral futures underscores the importance of reclaiming cultural identity heritage and ancestral knowledge as tools for sustainable development and justice. 
  • Latin American civil society envisions a depoliticized future, where cooperation transcends power struggles to address challenges like migration, security and economic instability through human rights-based approaches. 
  • In sub-Saharan Africa, the focus is on transformational change driven by inclusive governance, youth leadership and African-led solutions that reshape power dynamics and foster resilient, self-determined communities. 
  • For the Middle East and North Africa, a paradigm shift is essential — one that prioritizes democracy, justice and participatory development while redefining global cooperation through equitable and locally led approaches. 
  • In the Asia-Pacific region, a resilient and equitable future envisions inclusive collaboration to tackle climate change, economic inequalities and power imbalances, with local innovation and leadership at its core. 

These regional visions collectively call for a reimagined development paradigm rooted in justice, solidarity and the empowerment of local actors. 

Lessons in how diverse insights drive actionable foresight

The Futures Initiative showed that good foresight hinges on a diversity of data and participants. Bringing together a wide range of voices, perspectives and lived experiences uncovers richer insights into potential challenges and opportunities.

The initiative also emphasized that strategic foresight tools like scenario planning and environmental scanning are invaluable for anticipating the future. However, success depends on tailoring these tools to specific contexts, research goals and the needs of end users, ensuring that foresight efforts are both practical and actionable.

While the project achieved significant milestones, it also identified areas for improvement. Greater representation from the Global South and further refinement of foresight methodologies to better suit development contexts are key priorities for future initiatives.