Exploring the future of state governance in the Global South

People’s expectations of the role their governments should be playing are changing fast, at the same time as state institutions are navigating an increasingly complex and challenging environment.

“The rapid pace of change and intersecting shifts across the Global South — such as climate change, a burgeoning youth population, disruptive technologies and geopolitical tensions — are reshaping and raising questions about the role, capacity and legitimacy of states,” said Michelle van Rooyen, a researcher with the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Futures and Innovation program. “They are forcing states to do more with less.”

While countries of the Global South are very diverse, many share the experience of emerging from a colonial past in ways that shaped their governance systems over the 20th century. Today, these systems are under intense pressure, with some facing a crisis of legitimacy and other forms of disruption.

If states are to pursue a path towards inclusive democracy and sustainable development, how can policymakers anticipate and respond to these wide-ranging changes? How can they use these shifts to better meet citizens’ demands while pursuing resilience, cohesion and sustainable development? 

Taking a foresight approach to peer into the future 

To provide evidence-backed insights into what the future may bring for state governance, IDRC supported a strategic foresight exercise led by ISS. Building on current signals of change and emerging trends over the next 20 years, the project explored a range of plausible futures through a scenario-based approach. The findings are shared in the State Futures in the Global South report.

The report caps an exhaustive 18-month foresight process that combined regional comparative data analysis, modeling, horizon scanning and scenario development. Experts from around the world took part in regional workshops to share their insights on governance and democracy. 

Four scenarios and future state roles  

To examine how governance may evolve over time, ISS conducted a horizon scan of the systemic factors likely to shape the future of the state across five dimensions: political and security, economic, social, technology and innovation, and climate and resources. Building on existing ISS global scenarios — a World at War, a Divided World, a Growth World and a Sustainable World — the team used the scan to develop different state archetypes:

• The Collapsed State, where authorities rule by force alone. In a worst-case World at War, collapsed states govern as fortresses focused on their own survival using coercion to protect elites. Civic accountability and participation disappear, replaced by force and fear. Militias and criminal networks take over and global cooperation collapses, turning resource-rich areas of the Global South into battlegrounds.
• The Fractured State, which turns inward and leaves the most vulnerable exposed. In a Divided World shaped by nationalism and populism, fractured states pull away from global cooperation and a rules-based order. Wealthy and powerful states, who also have considerable resources, have the upper hand, but their legitimacy is challenged from within.
• The Dealmaker State, which pursues growth at the cost of inclusion. In the Growth World, states act like dealmakers, chasing access to markets, data, labour and other resources. Government effectiveness is based on technocratic delivery rather than democratic inclusion and legitimacy rests on economic growth and investor confidence. Inequality and a rural-urban divide deepen tensions among citizens, fuelling exclusion and resentment.
• The System-builder State, which demands upfront sacrifice to build sustainable and equitable growth. In the ideal Sustainable World, the state combines effective action on climate adaptation and mitigation with policies that promote democratic and inclusive governance. According to van Rooyen, who co-authored the report, this is the most challenging world to reach: “It is most likely only to happen after a crisis, because of the difficult choices that would have to be made.”  

These scenarios are not predictions but represent plausible futures.

Strategic insights: Future-proofing the state 

Looking across these four scenarios, the report offers ideas on how states can move toward a more just and sustainable future. 

• Tackle inequality: Inequality is the biggest risk across all scenarios, destabilizing all possible futures unless addressed directly. 
• Embrace hybrid governance: To maintain legitimacy, states must learn to collaborate with civil society, customary leaders and other helpful non-state actors. 
• Balance delivery with participation: Encouraging civic participation without delivering results weakens trust in government.  States must balance delivering on promises with transparency and inclusivity.
• Strengthen cooperation: South-South cooperation must evolve from solidarity to strategic alignment to build Southern bargaining power and reshape global institutions. 
• Pursue digital sovereignty: As more government and civic life moves online, states must treat data as a public asset and guarantee citizens digital access, rights and protections.
• Govern with foresight: Future proofing the state means building the ability to learn and adapt over time. Scenario building helps governments anticipate change, explore preferred futures and design resilient governance strategies.

A flexible tool to build foresight 

Policymakers, civil society and donors in the Global South can use the state futures framework to better understand and prepare for emerging risks, while imagining new possibilities. As van Rooyen highlighted, “There is a lot of uncertainty, but there is also a lot of opportunity in terms of doing things differently and trying to understand how we can renegotiate governance models towards a better future.” 

The report underscores the value of state and non-state actors adopting futures thinking as a regular practice — something that can help them to anticipate disruption, adapt proactively and evolve as learning, future-ready organizations. 

Learn more 

• State Futures in the Global South full report
• Blog by Michelle van Rooyen - Under pressure: Governance futures in the Global South
• Strategic foresight at IDRC
• Listen to experts discuss futures in the Global South at the report launch