The impact of tobacco pricing and packaging strategies in middle-income countries
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Summary
International evidence, primarily from high-income countries, has clearly shown that higher cigarette prices reduce tobacco use, with greater reductions among young people and those from socio-economically disadvantaged groups.Read more
International evidence, primarily from high-income countries, has clearly shown that higher cigarette prices reduce tobacco use, with greater reductions among young people and those from socio-economically disadvantaged groups. There is also a growing body of evidence that has observed positive impacts of plain packaging measures, especially in high-income country settings. However, the same cannot be concluded for low- and middle-income countries. Reviews that looked at how tobacco prices or taxes affected smoking in these countries did not produce conclusive evidence due to pervasive data and methodological limitations among reviewed studies.
To fill these gaps and respond to the policymakers’ demand for this evidence, this project will study the impact of tobacco prices on smoking onset, consumption, and cessation in Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, South Africa, and Vietnam. The effects of both tax and retail price will be further analyzed according to their effect by socioeconomic status, sex, and age, with simulations to determine the ultimate impacts on tax revenue, tobacco use, and health outcomes. Additionally, the impact of cigarette packaging and major recent country-specific policy changes will be analyzed. These analyses will also provide improved understanding of women’s and girls’ responsiveness to tobacco control measures. This knowledge is especially important to address the marketing strategies targeting vulnerable groups in low- and middle-income countries. Cross-border and cross-regional comparisons between countries with differing socioeconomic inequalities and policy environments will enhance the relevance of the findings to a wide variety of markets and strengthen the case for change when these countries review their policies.
This project was selected for funding under the Global Alliance for Chronic Diseases’ Lung Disease Call 2016, and is being parallel-funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and IDRC. The two Canadian institutions jointly designed their call to focus exclusively on tobacco control, disease prevention, and health equity, which are development priorities for both.
Research outputs
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The effectiveness of excise tax as a tool for reducing tobacco consumption depends largely on how the tax increases impact retail prices. The study estimates this price relationship in South Africa (2001–2015). The magnitude of the price increase depends on the degree to which the tax increase is passed through to consumers. The degree of passthrough thus determines effectiveness. This paper considers the dynamics of cigarette excise tax passthrough in South Africa. People change their purchasing behavior in response to retail price changes, not in response to excise tax changes.
Objective: To estimate the degree to which tobacco consumption is associated with spending on a set of goods and services in Chile, especially health and education, for the total population as well as for specific subgroups.
South American countries, and Chile in particular, endure some of the highest cigarette smoking prevalence rates globally. Despite the lack of any meaningful increases in cigarette taxes (the most effective tobacco control measure), between 1999 and 2014 cigarette prices in Chile increased sharply almost entirely driven by British American Tobacco (BAT). Findings suggest that higher prices initiated by BAT and the tobacco control policies enacted by the Ministry of Health (2006) were associated with lower hazards of starting smoking in Chilean youth. A large cigarette tax increase can be used strategically to reduce smoking among youth in Chile.