Himalayan Adaptation, Water, and Resilience
This research project will serve to help poor and vulnerable women, men, and children learn to adapt to and manage climate change in Asia's Hindu Kush Himalayan region.
Why the Himalayan region is important
The region, stretching from central Afghanistan to northern Pakistan, is one of the world's most dynamic, diverse, and complex mountain and floodplain systems. It provides water resources and other ecosystem services to more than 210 million people in the mountains and 1.3 billion people living downstream.
How this research will support adaptation
Socio-economic changes, combined with climate change impacts, may significantly affect the livelihoods of everyone in the region. To help the people of Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Nepal adapt, this project will develop robust evidence to inform climate change adaptation policies and practices.
Researchers will focus on the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra river basins. They will compare research and pilot results analyzing adaptation interventions at a variety of sites. The research sites will represent a range of climatic and hydrological conditions and socio-economic contexts. Stakeholders will be actively involved in the process.
Expected research results
A research consortium with a reputation for excellence will lead the project, which is expected to:
-generate scientific knowledge on climate change impacts, vulnerability drivers, and adaptation policies and practices;
-promote decision-makers' use of knowledge and adaptation practices at various scales to reduce vulnerabilities and build livelihood resilience; and
-strengthen interdisciplinary expertise in climate change adaptation and resilience research.
These outcomes will allow governments to improve their adaptation policies and practices. They will also help ensure that funds can be mobilized for sustainable adaptation strategies.
Project ID
107641
Project Status
Completed
End Date
Duration
55 months
IDRC Officer
Kallur Murali
Total Funding
CA$ 13,500,000.00
Location
Bangladesh
India
Nepal
Pakistan
Programs
Climate Change
Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia
Institution Country
Nepal
Project Leader
Anjal Prakash
Institution
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development/Centre international de mise en valeur intégrée des montagnes
Institution Website
Institution Country
Pakistan
Project Leader
Bashir Ahmad
Institution
Pakistan Agricultural Research Council
Institution Website
Institution Country
Netherlands
Project Leader
Dr. Hester Biemans
Institution
Stichting Wageningen Research
Institution Country
Bangladesh
Project Leader
Mr. Md. Abu Syed
Institution
Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies
Institution Website
Institution Country
India
Project Leader
Mrs. Suruchi Bhadwal
Institution
The Energy and Resources Institute
Institution Website
Outputs
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Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : an advanced envelope-based selection approach Article
Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change impact study. The selection of climate models is not straightforward and can be done by following different methods. Usually, the selection is either based on the entire range of changes in climatic variables as projected by the total ensemble of available climate models or on the skill of climate models to simulate past climate. The present study combines these approaches in a three-step sequential climate model selection procedure: (1) initial selection of climate models based on the range of projected changes in climatic means, (2) refined selection based on the range of projected changes in climatic extremes and (3) final selection based on the climate model Author(s): Lutz, Arthur F., ter Maat, Herbert W., Biemans, Hester, Shrestha, Arun B., Wester, Philippus, Immerzeel, Walter W. Language: English |
The nexus approach to water energy food security : an option for adaptation to climate change Article
Developing countries face a difficult challenge in meeting the growing demands for food, water, and energy, which is further compounded by climate change. Effective adaptation to change requires the efficient use of land, water, energy, and other vital resources, and coordinated efforts to minimize trade-offs and maximize synergies. However, as in many developing countries, the policy process in South Asia generally follows a sectoral approach that does not take into account the interconnections and interdependence among the three sectors. Although the concept of a water–energy–food nexus is gaining currency, and adaptation to climate change has become an urgent need, little effort has been made so far to understand the linkages between the nexus perspective and adaptation to climate change. Using the Hindu Kush Himalayan region as an example, this article seeks to increase understanding of the interlinkages in the water, energy, and food nexus, explains why it is important to consider this nexus in the context of adaptation responses, and argues that focusing on trade-offs and synergies using a nexus approach Author(s): Rasul, Golam, Sharma, Bikash Language: English |
Climate change impacts on the Upper Indus hydrology : sources, shifts and extremes Article
The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Author(s): Lutz, A.F., Immerzeel, W.W., Kraaijenbrink, P.D.A., Shrestha, A.B., Bierkens, P. Language: English |
Classification of adaptation measures and criteria for evaluation Case studies in the Indus River-Basin Paper
This working paper is aimed at finding out the climate change adaptations going on across the three HI-AWARE Project Sites in Indus Basin, namely Hunza (High mountains), Soan Basin (Mid hill) and Chaj Doab ( Flood plains). Both autonomous and planned adaptations have been enlisted after thoroughly reviewing published and grey literature. Some focus group discus-sions and key informant interviews were also held in order to know about people experiences, perceptions and existing practices that they are carrying out to sustain their livelihood. Author(s): Ishaq, Sultan, Ahmad, Bashir, Kamran, Ali, Raza, Nelufar, Ahmed Khan, Muneeb, Tahir Virk, Zeeshan, Doger, Salar Saeed, Khalid Jamil, Muhammad, Mustafa, Naveed, Mahmood, Talha, Hassan, Masooma Language: English |
Reference climate dataset for the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra river basins Paper
High-altitude climates are particularly uncertain, and commonly used climate datasets are grossly inaccurate at high altitudes. Therefore, a novel reference climate dataset covering the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra (IGB) river basins has been constructed with a particular focus on improved representation of high-altitude precipitation. This document describes the construction of a historical climate dataset for the IGB river basins, which has been constructed for widespread use in the HI-AWARE project. The dataset covers the period from 1 January 1981 to 31 December 2010 with a daily time step and covers the IGB river basins at 10x10 km spatial resolution. Additionally, the upstream parts of the basins are covered at 5x5 km spatial resolution in a separate dataset to account for the larger variability in mountainous terrain. The methods used to generate the dataset have been discussed and the contents of the dataset have been illustrated in this document. Author(s): Lutz, Arthur F., Immerzeel, Walter Language: English |
Assessing costs and benefits of climate change adaptation Paper
This paper provides a review of existing studies of the region and an assessment of climate-related risks for different climate change scenarios. This is an essential step towards understanding what adaptation measures are required in the region, and how effective these are likely to be, including their cost effectiveness. Risk has been defined in various ways in the literature. Risks for disaster contexts typically refer to the likelihood of severe alterations in normal functioning traceable to a hazardous event, when physical hazards combine with socioeconomic vulnerabilities and lead to widespread adverse outcomes. Author(s): Dasgupta, Purnamita Language: English |
Himalayan adaptation, water and resilience (HI-AWARE) research on glacier and snowpack dependent river basins for improving livelihoods : consortium report 2018 Report
The research promotes evidence-based innovative adaptation approaches and practices. Three pilot initiatives focused on: a solar powered irrigation pump; eco-san toilets; and flood resistant housing. This detailed report outlines activities, outcomes and outputs of the project including dissemination of research. The aim is to improve policies and practices that help vulnerable populations adapt to climate change, and to enhance adaptive capacities and climate resilience of vulnerable groups in the mountains and plains of glacier and snowpack-dependent river basins of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH). Author(s): Wester, Philippus, Shrestha, Arun, Prakash, Anjal, Bhadwal, Suruchi, Syed, Abu, Biemans, Hester, Ahmad, Bashir Language: English |
Impact of a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees celsius on Asia’s glaciers Article
The initial study shows that a global temperature rise of 1.5°C will lead to a warming of 2.1±0.1°C in the high mountains of Asia (HMA), and that 64±7 per cent of the present-day ice mass stored in the HMA glaciers will remain by the end of the century. However, as the 1.5°C goal is extremely ambitious it is projected by only a small number of climate models. Of the IPCC’s Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP), projections for RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 reveal that much of the glacier ice is likely to disappear, with mass losses of 49±7 per cent, 51±6 per cent and 64±5 per cent, respectively, by the end of the century. Author(s): Kraaijenbrink, P.D.A., Bierkens, M.F.P., Lutz, A.F., Immerzeel, W.W. Language: English |
Climate adaptation approaches and key policy characteristics : cases from South Asia Article
This paper assesses existing policies in South Asia in view of long-term climate change adaptation and finds they need to focus on shared transboundary resources, instead of national or sub-national scales. It analyzes policy approaches in terms of institutional flexibility, adaptive nature, scalability and reflexivity, and evaluates these characteristics in the climate change adaptation policies of Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan. A discussion section reflects on key insights. For instance, each country has a different sectoral vulnerability: Nepal's adaptation policy focuses on forestry and soil conservation, while Bangladesh’s focuses on water and flood management. Author(s): Vij, Sumit, Moors, Eddy, Ahmad, Bashir, Arfanuzzaman, Md., Bhadwal, Suruchi, Biesbroek, Robbert, Gioli, Giovanna, Groot, Annemarie, Mallick, Dwijen, Regmi, Bimal, Saeed, Basharat Ahmed, Ishaq, Sultan, Thapa, Bhuwan, Werners, Saskia E., Wester, Philippus Language: English |
Patterns of outdoor exposure to heat in three South Asian cities Article
This paper presents an assessment of exposure to outdoor heat in the South Asian cities Delhi, Dhaka, and Faisalabad. Conditions classified as dangerous to very dangerous and likely to impede productivity, are observed almost every day of the measurement period during daytime. This was found even when air temperature falls after the onset of the monsoon. Detailed results show people living in informal neighbourhoods are consistently more exposed to heat than people living in more prosperous neighbourhoods. During night-time, exposure tends to be enhanced in densely-built informal neighbourhoods. Greener and more open neighbourhoods tend to be cooler. Author(s): Jacobs, Cor, Singh, Tanya, Gorti, Ganesh, Iftikhar, Usman, Saeed, Salar, Syed, Abu, Abbas, Farhat, Ahmad, Bashir, Bhadwal, Suruchi, Siderius, Christian Language: English |
Towards characterizing the adaptive capacity of farmer-managed irrigation systems : learnings from Nepal Article
Small-scale irrigation systems managed by farmers are facing multiple challenges including competing water demand, climatic variability and change, and socioeconomic transformation. Though the relevant institutions for irrigation management have developed coping and adaptation mechanisms, the intensity and frequency of the changes have weakened their institutional adaptive capacity. Using case examples mostly from Nepal, this paper studies the interconnections between seven key dimensions of adaptive capacity: the five capitals (human, financial, natural, social, and physical), governance, and learning. Long-term adaptation requires harnessing the synergies and tradeoffs between generic adaptive capacity that fosters broader development goals and specific adaptive capacity that strengthens climate-risk management. Measuring and addressing the interrelations among the seven adaptive-capacity dimensions aids in strengthening the long term sustainability of farmer-managed irrigation systems. Author(s): Thapa, Bhuwan, Scott, Christopher, Wester, Philippus, Varady, Robert Language: English |
Water for growth and development in the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna basins : an economic perspective Article
The Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna (GBM) river system flows through five countries – Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, and Nepal – characterized by large population, limited land resources, and frequent floods and natural hazards. Although the GBM region is well endowed with water sources, this is one of the poorest regions in the world. Its economy and human and environmental health depend on water, and water is thus at the Author(s): Rasul, Golam Language: English |
Tapping the potential of neglected and underutilized food crops for sustainable nutrition security in the mountains of Pakistan and Nepal Article
Neglected and underutilized food crops (NUFCs) have high nutritional value, but their role in achieving nutrition security is not adequately understood, and they do not feature in food and nutrition policies and programs of the countries of the Hindu-Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. Drawing examples from Pakistan and Nepal, this study investigates the importance of NUFCs in achieving nutrition security in the mountains and identifies key underlying reasons for the decline in their cultivation and use. The study found that the prevalence of malnutrition is significantly higher in the mountains than nationally in both Pakistan and Nepal and identifies the decline in the cultivation and use of micronutrient-rich NUFCs as one of the key reasons for this. The deterioration of local food systems, changing food habits, lack of knowledge about the cultivation, use and nutritional value of NUFCs and lack of attention to NUFCs in programs and policies are the key reasons for the abandoning of NUFCs by mountain communities. There is an urgent need to mainstream these crops into national programs and policies and to integrate them into local food systems. This will not only improve the nutrition security of mountain areas, but also biodiversity and local mountain economies. Author(s): Adhikari, Lipy, Hussain, Abid, Rasul, Golam Language: English |
Flexible strategies for coping with rainfall variability: seasonal adjustments in cropped area in the Ganges basin Article
One of the main manifestations of climate change will be increased rainfall variability. How to deal with this in agriculture will be a major societal challenge. In this paper we explore flexibility in land use, through deliberate seasonal adjustments in cropped area, as a specific strategy for coping with rainfall variability. Such adjustments are not incorporated in hydro-meteorological crop models commonly used for food security analyses. Our paper contributes to the literature by making a comprehensive model assessment of inter-annual variability in crop production, including both variations in crop yield and cropped area. The Ganges basin is used as a case study. First, we assessed the contribution of cropped area variability to overall variability in rice and wheat production by applying hierarchical partitioning on time-series of agricultural statistics. We then introduced cropped area as an endogenous decision variable in a hydro-economic optimization model (WaterWise), coupled to a hydrology-vegetation model (LPJmL), and analyzed to what extent its performance in the estimation of inter-annual variability in crop production improved. From the statistics, we found that in the period 1999–2009 seasonal adjustment in cropped area can explain almost 50% of variability in wheat production and 40% of variability in rice production in the Indian part of the Ganges basin. Our improved model was well capable of mimicking existing variability at different spatial aggregation levels, especially for wheat. The value of flexibility, i.e. the foregone costs of choosing not to crop in years when water is scarce, was quantified at 4% of gross margin of wheat in the Indian part of the Ganges basin and as high as 34% of gross margin of wheat in the drought-prone state of Rajasthan. We argue that flexibility in land use is an important coping strategy to rainfall variability in water stressed regions. Author(s): Siderius, Christian, Biemanns, Hester, van Walsum, Paul E. V., van Ierland, Ekko C., Kabat, Pavel, Hellegers, Petra J.G.J. Language: English |
Impact of debris cover on glacier ablation and atmosphere - glacier feedbacks in the Karakoram Article
The Karakoram range of the Hindu-Kush Himalaya is characterized by both extensive glaciation and a widespread prevalence of surficial debris cover on the glaciers. Surface debris exerts a strong control on glacier surface-energy and mass fluxes and, by modifying surface boundary conditions, has the potential to alter atmosphere– Author(s): Collier, E., Maussion, F., Nicholson, L.I., Mölg, T., Immerzeel, W.W., Bush, A.B.G. Language: English |
An appraisal of precipitation distribution in the high-altitude catchments of the Indus Basin Article
Scarcity of in-situ observations coupled with high orographic influences has prevented a comprehensive assessment of precipitation distribution in the high-altitude catchments of Indus basin. Available data are generally fragmented and scattered with different organizations and mostly cover the valleys. Here, we combine most of the available station data with the indirect precipitation estimates at the accumulation zones of major glaciers to analyse altitudinal dependency of precipitation in the high-altitude Indus basin. The available observations signified the importance of orography in each sub-hydrological basin but could not infer an accurate distribution of precipitation with altitude.We used Kriging with External Drift (KED) interpolation scheme with elevation as a predictor to appraise spatiotemporal distribution of mean monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation for the period of 1998–2012. The KED-based annual precipitation estimates are verified by the corresponding basin-wide observed specific runoffs, which show good agreement. In contrast to earlier studies, our estimates reveal substantially higher precipitation in most of the sub-basins indicating two distinct rainfall maxima; 1st along southern Author(s): Dahri, Zakir Hussain, Ludwig, Fulco, Moors, Eddy, Ahmad, Bashir, Khan, Asif, Kabat, Pavel Language: English |
Transboundary water governance in the Hindu Kush Himalaya region Beyond the dialectics of conflict and cooperation Paper
The querulous nature of transboundary water governance is as old as the concept and practice of transboundary water management. Its discourse is now overwhelmed by attempts made and lessons learnt in transboundary water management. At the core of the rationale lies the question why countries should collaborate with each other to engage in transboundary alliances. Against this background, this narrative review presents a systematic inquiry into the rationale behind transboundary cooperation in order to reinforce and inform further research on and practice of transboundary water to vernance in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region. It provides a justification for a pragmatic approach to transboundary water governance that goes beyond the dialectics of conflict and cooperation, particularly for countries in the HKH, where research evidence suggests that such a governance system could have momentous socio-economic as well as political implications. Author(s): Shrestha, Ankita, Ghate, Rucha Language: English |
One step forward, two steps back? The fading contours of (in)justice in competing discourses on climate migration Article
In recent debates on climate change and migration, the focus on the figure of ‘climate refugees’ (tainted by environmental determinism and a crude understanding of human mobility) has given ground to a broader conception of the climate–migration nexus. In particular, the idea that migration can represent a legitimate adaptation strategy has emerged strongly. This appears to be a positive development, marked by softer tones that de-securitise climate migration. However, political and normative implications of this evolution are still understudied. This article contributes to filling the gap by turning to both the ‘climate refugees’ and ‘migration as adaptation’ narratives, interrogating how and whether those competing narratives pose the question of (in)justice. Our analysis shows that the highly problematic ‘climate refugees’ narrative did (at least) channel justice claims and yielded the (illusory) possibility of identifying concrete rights claims and Author(s): Bettini, Giovanni, Nash, Sarah Louise, Gioli, Giovanna Language: English |
Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : an advanced envelope based selection approach Article
Limitations in computational capacity compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change impact study. The selection of climate models is not straightforward and can be made via different methods. This study combines approaches in a three-step sequential climate model selection procedure: 1) initial selection of climate models based on the range of projected changes in climatic means, 2) refined selection based on the range of projected changes in climatic extremes and 3) final selection based on the climate model skill to simulate past climate. The procedure is illustrated through a study covering the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins. Author(s): Lutz, Arthur F., Maat, Herbert W. ter, Biemans, Hester, Shrestha, Arun B., Westerd, Philippus, Immerzeel, Walter W. Language: English |
South Asian river basins in a 1.5 °C warmer world Article
The study provides a regional quantitative assessment of the impacts of global warming for a major global climate change hotspot: the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra river basins (IGB) in South Asia, by analyzing changes in climate change indicators based on 1.5 and 2 °C global warming scenarios. The model uses an ensemble of downscaled general circulation models, representative for the complete set of climate change projections in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model archive, related to the IGB region. It does not include future changes in sea level rise. Author(s): Lutz, Arthur F., Maat, Herbert W. ter, Wijngaard, René R., Biemans, Hester, Syed, Abu, Shrestha, Arun B., Wester, Philippus, Immerzeel, Walter W. Language: English |
Migration and the 2015 Ghorkha earthquake in Nepal - effect on rescue and relief processes and lessons for the future Paper
This study focuses on three main questions: Author(s): Maharjan, Amina, Prakahs, Anjal, Goodrich Gurung, Chanda Language: English |
HI-AWARE consortium final technical report 2018 Report
How to develop timely adaptation measures and approaches to respond to rising temperatures, seasonal shifts in glacier and snowmelt induced runoff, and increased frequency of extreme events in the HKH mountains and floodplains in order to improve the resilience of livelihoods of the poorest and most vulnerable women, men and children in the region? Author(s): Prakash, Anjal, Thomas, Samuel Language: English |
Citizen-driven science climate adaptation ateliers - CISCAAs Study
Citizens-driven Science on Climate Adaptation (CISCAAs) sites are villages/urban neighbourhoods where adaptation practices and approaches are observed in real life situations involving the local community. Nine CISCAAs are installed in three countries: Pakistan, India and Bangladesh. The main mode of data collection is through automatic weather stations. In the CISCAAs, a process of participatory data collection and processing with regard to adaptation practices is linked with science driven testing (the pilots) and modelling. Three pilots have been defined: climate smart agricultural practices (solar powered irrigation); flood-proof housing; and small hydropower projects. Linking to national meteorological institutes will be essential. Author(s): Siderius, Christian, Uddin, Nasir, Singh, Prasoon, Virk, Zeeshan, Syed, Abu, Bhadwal, Suruchi, Ahmad, Bashir, Groot, Annemarie Language: English |
Crop-specific seasonal estimates of irrigation-water demand in South Asia Article
Especially in the Himalayan headwaters of the main rivers in South Asia, shifts in runoff are expected as a result of a rapidly changing climate. In recent years, our insight into these shifts and their impact on water availability has increased. However, a similar detailed understanding of the seasonal pattern in water demand is surprisingly absent.This hampers a proper assessment of water stress and ways to cope and adapt. In this study, the seasonal pattern of irrigation-water demand resulting from the typical practice of multiple cropping in South Asia was accounted for by introducing double cropping with monsoon-dependent planting dates in a hydrology and vegetation model. Crop yields were calibrated to the latest state-level statistics of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal. The improvements in seasonal land use and cropping periods lead to lower estimates of irrigation-water demand compared to previous model-based studies, despite the net irrigated area being higher. Crop irrigation-water demand differs sharply between seasons and regions; in Pakistan, winter (rabi) and monsoon summer (kharif) irrigation demands are almost equal, whereas in Bangladesh the rabi demand is 100 times higher. Moreover, the relative importance of irrigation supply versus rain Author(s): Biemans, Hester, Siderius, Christian, Mishra, Ashok, Ahmad, Bashir Language: English |
Gendered vulnerability and adaptation in Hindu-Kush Himalayas : research insights Article
Climate change vulnerabilities are manifestations of intersecting contextual conditions and socioeconomic drivers of change. This introduction outlines major issues and gaps with regard to gendered vulnerability in Hindu-Kush Himalayan regions, along with key research and findings. This thematic issue of Environmental Development journal brings together studies on aspects of intersectionality and climate change vulnerability. Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) is where 10 river systems originate through the highest peaks of the world in a mountain system spread over eight countries. The especially high elevation biota includes forest, agro-biodiversity, range and pasture ecosystems. HKH is a major hotspot for climate change. Author(s): Goodrich, Chanda G., Prakash, Anjal, Udas, Pranita B. Language: English |
Pinning down social vulnerability in Sindh Province, Pakistan : from narratives to numbers, and back again Article
This paper reflects critically on a vulnerability assessment process at the household and community levels in Sindh Province (Pakistan) using a quantitative vulnerabilities and capacities index (VCI). Note that the index can be used in conjunction with qualitative assessments, but not instead of them. Results show that vulnerability is more a function of historico-political economic factors and cultural ethos than biophysical changes wrought by climate. The emerging gendered vulnerability picture reveals extremes of poverty and lack of capacity to cope with contemporary environmental and social stresses. This paper validates a methodology for measuring social vulnerability, undertaken in 62 villages across four agro-ecological/livelihood zones. Author(s): Mustafa, Daanish, Gioli, Giovanna, Memon, Manzoor, Noshirwani, Meher, Idris, Iffat, Ahmed, Nadeem Language: English |
Flexibility in land and water use for coping with rainfall variability Book
In this book’s thesis the concept of flexibility is applied to agriculture, with a focus on rainfall variability and resulting water availability as the main uncertainty factors, and land and water as the factors that can be varied. It refers to the ability of farmers and local water managers to seasonally anticipate variations in water availability by changing the cropping type or overall land use practices resulting in a dynamic system of land and water use modifications in two major food producing regions in South Asia and Eastern Africa. Author(s): Siderius, Christian Language: English |
Power interplay between actors : using material and ideational resources to shape local adaptation plans of action (LAPAs) in Nepal Article
Material and ideational resources include political authority, knowledge of adaptation science and national/local policy-making processes, financial resources and strong relations with international non-governmental organizations and donor agencies. In Nepal, local adaptation plans of action (LAPA) are designed to respond to community adaptation needs and for implementing adaptation strategies to reduce long-term climate risks. However, studies show that LAPAs are in actuality short-term in nature. The article focuses on what is happening during an interaction between actors, theorizing power as an interactional phenomenon and fundamental in human relations. As better long-term planners, the inclusion of women may redress some design limitations. Author(s): Vij, Sumit, Biesbroek, Robbert, Groot, Annemarie, Termeer, Katrien, Parajuli, Binod Prasad Language: English |
Impact of climate change on the hydrology of High Mountain Asia Study
Mountain ranges in High Mountain Asia (HMA) are the highest on Earth. Combined with monsoon-dominated precipitation regimes, the amount of water generated is particularly vast. As well, HMA has a large volume of water stored as glacier ice. Studies worldwide show that recent increasing temperature trends are stronger for mountainous regions than for other land surfaces. The thesis summarizes current research, discusses hydrological and climate modelling and focuses on changes in overall water availability, seasonal shifts in runoff generation, and changes in the frequency and magnitude of hydrological extremes in High Mountain Asia. Author(s): Lutz, Arthur Friedrich Language: English |
Climate change impact assessment on the hydrological regime of the Kaligandaki basin, Nepal Article
The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for projection of changes in the hydrological regime of the Kaligandaki basin, based on Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) of ensemble downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's (CMIP5) General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs. A rise in the average annual temperature of over 4 °C, and an increase in the average annual precipitation of over 26% is predicted by the end of the 21st century under RCP 8.5 scenario. Modeling results show these will lead to significant changes in the basin's water balance and hydrological regime. Author(s): Bajracharya, Ajay Ratna, Bajracharya, Sagar Ratna, Shrestha, Arun Bhakta, Maharjan, Sudan Bikash Language: English |
When do Indians feel hot? Internet searches indicate seasonality suppresses adaptation to heat Article
This study explores the potential of using Regional Internet Search Frequencies (RISF) for air conditioning devices as an indicator for thermal discomfort, with the aim to quantify the adaptation potential of individuals living across different climate zones and at the high end of the temperature range in India, where access to health data is limited. Results indicate there is potential to adapt to warmer temperatures, but that a large intra-annual temperature variability attenuates this potential to adapt to extreme heat. The winter ‘reset’ mechanism should be taken into account when assessing the impact of global warming. Author(s): Singh, Tanya, Siderius, Christian, Van der Velde, Ype Language: English |
Future changes in hydro-climatic extremes in the Upper Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra River basins Article
The study investigates the impacts of climate change on future hydrological extremes in the upstream domains of the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra basins. Outcomes show an increase in the magnitude of climatic means and extremes towards the end of the 21st century, where climatic extremes tend to increase stronger than climatic means. The Hindu Kush–Himalayan (HKH) region plays a crucial role in South Asian hydrology. It encompasses the headwaters of the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra (IGB), and supports the livelihoods of about 700 million people living in these basins. Author(s): Wijngaard, Rene R., Lutz, Arthur F., Nepal, Santosh, Khanal, Sonu, Pradhananga, Saurav, Shrestha, Arun B., Immerzeel, Walter W. Language: English |
Adjustment of measurement errors to reconcile precipitation distribution in the high-altitude Indus basin Article
Quantitative and spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation estimated by previous studies in the high-altitude Indus basin are highly contrasting and uncertain. This research integrates precipitation data of 307 observatories, with the net snow accumulations estimated through mass balance studies at 21 major glacier zones. The study recognized that higher river flows than the corresponding precipitation estimates by the previous studies are mainly due to underestimated precipitation of individual stations located at higher altitudes during winter months. Author(s): Dahri, Zakir Hussain, Moors, Eddy, Ludwig, Fulco, Ahmad, Shakil, Khan, Asif, Ali, Irfan, Kabat, Pavel Language: English |
Climate change vs. socio-economic development : understanding the future South Asian water gap Article
The study assesses combined impacts of climate change and socio-economic development on the future water gap in the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra (IGB) river basins until the end of the 21st century. The IGB provides about 900 million people with water resources used for agricultural, domestic, and industrial purposes. Environmental flow requirements (EFRs) have not been considered in most future assessments on climate change induced or socio-economic development-induced changes in water supply and demand in the region. The paper proposes a model simulation incorporating factors of the hydrological cycle. Author(s): Wijngaard, René Reijer, Biemans, Hester, Lutz, Arthur Friedrich, Shrestha, Arun Bhakta, Wester, Philippus, Immerzeel, WalterWillem Language: English |
Cost effective adaptation to flood : sanitation interventions in the Gandak river basin, India Article
Given the acute deficits in sanitation in the region, the study looks at technology options that demonstrate how climate risk management can be integrated with development targets for poor and marginalized households. The cost-effectiveness of technology options is altered substantially when the costs of current and future flood events are incorporated into the equation. The study reveals that engineering or construction cost-based norms can under-estimate the benefits of integrating climate risks into infrastructure design, and the importance of capturing non-marketed benefits in such assessments. Findings indicate that policy interventions need to be sensitive to interaction effects between technology and climate change. Author(s): Dasgupta, Purnamita, Sahay, Samraj, Prakash, Anjal, Lutz, Arthur Language: English |
Understanding rural outmigration and agricultural land use change in the Gandaki Basin, Nepal Article
This study investigates agricultural land use change in Chitwan, Nuwakot and Lamjung districts of Nepal (1990-2017) in relation to rural outmigration, which has steadily increased. A remittance economy has fuelled urbanization processes as well as transformations in the rural economy. Results of the study show that agricultural land abandonment is higher in mountain areas than in the plains (Terai). When men out-migrate women continue to farm, leading to the feminization of agriculture. But when significant numbers of women out-migrate, farms are abandoned as older people are often unable to do the work. Increased commercialization and competitiveness of agriculture may reduce land abandonment. Author(s): Maharjan, Amina, Kochhar, Ishaan, Chitale, Vishwas Sudhir, Hussain, Abid, Gioli, Giovanna Language: English |