The future of the state from a Global South perspective

 

In the past few years, the global community has grappled with a series of major challenges (including a pandemic, the climate crisis, rising authoritarianism and the digital/AI revolution) questioning and sometimes challenging state governance. The continuation or intensification of these complex factors – and the appearance of others – will likely contribute to profound transformations in the governance role of the state in the future, affecting peoples’ relations with or expectations towards the state.

If this will concern governments and populations primarily, groups such as public and private philanthropy donors will also be affected by the changing roles of the state (and non-state) actors and will need to adapt. Their operating environment may evolve dramatically and the issues they are mandated to tackle can transform in nature or scope. It is thus critical for donors promoting democratic and inclusive governance to identify emerging trends and developments, to understand their drivers, to explore their likely impact on the models and approaches they support, finance and implement, and finally to integrate this analysis in their strategies, programs and policies to best anticipate and foster a desirable future for all.

With the aim of supporting the building of future-looking evidence for governments, donors and the wider public, this project will explore the current and evolving nature of the state’s governance in different regions, adopting a comparative and forward-looking scenario-based approach supported by data-driven comparisons with a two-decade forecast horizon. The regions under analysis will be Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia and Europe/North America.