Developing quality criteria for guiding the impact of foresight in food systems transformation

 

The field of foresight in food systems, climate action and social and environmental systems is rapidly expanding. This is due to an increased interest in the long-term processes of systems change, transformation thinking and anticipatory policy, but also due to the perception of frequent, recurring and deeply interconnected crises across the world. The existence of complex challenges shows that although data-rich, model-based forecasting can support evidence-based policymaking in some ways, it often fails to operate well in conditions of turbulence, unpredictability, uncertainty, novelty and ambiguity. The globally stated ambitions coming from the Paris Declaration and, more recently, the UN Food Systems Summit have opened up a strong interest in foresight and futures thinking as a way to navigate these conditions and enhance the relevance and impact of development investments.

This project will support regional African multi-actor food-system transformation efforts through the development and promotion of a guide on ‘Quality Standards and an Evaluation Framework for the Application of Foresight in Food Systems Transformation.’ This guide will aim to enhance the quality of foresight and scenario analysis at regional, national and local levels. The guide will provide users (IDRC, national governments, international agencies and development organizations) with support in commissioning, guiding and assessing quality foresight work, and practitioners (implementors, researchers and facilitators) with working principles, learning questions, methods and applicable cases to improve action orientation and utility of foresight work.