Assessing Zika transmission dynamics and mitigation strategies
Since its detection in Brazil in May 2015, the Zika virus has spread rapidly throughout the geographical range occupied by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The association of Zika virus infection with microcephaly (babies born with abnormally small heads) and other neurological disorders led the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in February 2016. In November 2016, in view of the decrease of the outbreak in Brazil, WHO ended the international alarm but noted that Zika transmission and its severe consequences will continue to represent a top public health challenge. Knowledge gaps remain in the ecological transmission dynamics, or the factors that affect the spread of the Zika virus at the interface of humans, mosquitoes, and their environments, and in the effectiveness and costs of interventions.
Zika virus transmission presents a unique and urgent challenge that compels a multidisciplinary response. This project will develop multidisciplinary and international collaborations involving Canadian and Latin American researchers in cooperation with the University of the Andes. These partners will conduct field studies in Argentina, Colombia, and Ecuador aiming to characterize the ecological transmission dynamics of the Zika virus and to predict areas at risk in each country and across the LAC region. They will design and assess integrated Zika control strategies using computer simulation based on the data collected in the field studies, as well as other data from collaborators and the literature. They will then propose interventions in the areas of transmission in the three countries. This research will address critical Zika research priorities identified by the Pan American Health Organization, assess mosquito control measures, and provide decision-makers with a tool to rapidly determine optimal intervention strategies.
Assessing ZIKV transmission dynamics and mitigation strategies : a multidisciplinary approach : final report
A multi-country analysis based on entomological and socioeconomic data collected in three countries identified risk factors for Aedes mosquito density as a proxy for arbovirus transmission risk. Using computer simulation, the project aimed to identify a range of integrated Zika virus (ZIKV) intervention strategies and assess their comparative effectiveness, economic impact and cost-effectiveness. It was carried out in Latin American countries that have different epidemiological and ecological settings of Zika virus transmission (Colombia, Argentina and Ecuador), with the objective of characterizing the ecological transmission dynamics of ZIKV and designing integrated intervention approaches.
Author(s): González, Camila, Carrasquilla, María Cristina, Espinel, Mauricio, Cevallos, Varsovia, Kulkarni, Manisha
Assessing ZIKV transmission dynamics and mitigation strategies : a multidisciplinary approach
The project took place in three Latin American countries that have different epidemiological and ecological settings of Zika virus transmission: Colombia, Argentina and Ecuador; with the objective of characterizing the ecological transmission dynamics of Zika virus (ZIKV) and designing integrated intervention approaches. The report provides country-specific information regarding project implementation. The multi-country regression analysis identified several factors associated with an increased density of adult female Aedes mosquitoes, which represent important risk factors for arboviral disease transmission that can be considered in the design of disease prevention and control strategies. The report includes analysis and outputs from the project.
Author(s): Sander, Beate, Gonzalez, Camila, Espinel, Mauricio, Kulkarni, Manisha, Miretti, Marcos